Does squad instability at Swindon Town result in relegation?

A total of 29 players have already been used by Mark Cooper in League One this season. Ron Smith asks does instability in the squad equate to a poor final league position?
As a mixture of injuries and late loan signings have taken their toll as Swindon Town’s 12 games played in League One has seen 29 different players taking to the field. There have also been only two occasions when Cooper has been able to field the same starting XI – against Port Vale and Southend United respectively.
Saturday’s defeat to Peterborough United added another three to the tally of players with at least one League appearance. The returning Ben Gladwin (on loan from QPR), Adam El-Abd (on loan from Bristol City) and 18-year old Ellis Iandolo all made their debuts.
The instability in the starting XI and need to use the full depth of the squad and additional loanees has widely been quoted as a contributing factor towards Town’s form of 8 points from ten games. However the effects of this factor over the course of the season – judging by Town’s past Football League record – is unclear as to whether there is a direct relationship between players used and eventual success.
With help from Richard Banyard of swindon-town-fc.co.uk we can quantify the impact of the total players used by Swindon Town in each Football League season and the final League position…
The Graph…
- Paolo Di Canio used the highest number of players in our Football League history as a staggering 39 played at least once during the League Two title winning campaign in 2011/12;
- At the other end of the scale, Danny Williams used the fewest number of players in 1968/69 as just 16 played a League match on the way to promotion and a successful campaign in the League Cup;
- The most common tally of players used in a Football League campaign is 23, with 11 instances (1920-21, 1929-1930, 1937-38, 1948-49, 1951-52, 1952-53, 1961-62, 1972-73, 1975-76, 1989-90 & 1991-92);
- The average number of players used for a successful promotion campaign (including 1989/90) is 25;
- The average number of players used in a relegation campaign (including re-election) is 28.9;
- Swindon have been promoted in four of the ten occasions that 22 players have been used;
- The data suggests that Town will finish in 13th position following 29 players used so far in 2015/16; and
- The graph shows there are more instances of a lower league position the greater the number of players used during a League campaign, although Di Canio in 2011/12 was the exception to that rule. However, there is no direct link between players used and poor league position, or even relegation. This analysis highlights the obvious conclusion that the frequency of squad rotation and the number of players used is one of many factors in determining league position.
The Data:
Season | Number Of Players Used | Competition Name | Final Position |
2011-2012 | 39 | nPower Football League Two | 1st of 24 (p) |
1997-1998 | 37 | Nationwide League Division One | 18th of 24 |
1999-2000 | 36 | Nationwide League Division One | 24th of 24 (r) |
2000-2001 | 36 | Nationwide League Division Two | 20th of 24 |
2005-2006 | 36 | Coca-Cola Football League One | 23rd of 24 (r) |
2013-2014 | 34 | Sky Bet Football League One | 8th of 24 |
2006-2007 | 33 | Coca-Cola Football League Two | 3rd of 24 (p) |
1994-1995 | 33 | Endsleigh Insurance League Division One | 21st of 24 (r) |
2007-2008 | 32 | Coca-Cola Football League One | 13th of 24 |
2012-2013 | 32 | nPower Football League One | 6th of 24 |
2004-2005 | 32 | Coca-Cola Football League One | 12th of 24 |
2010-2011 | 32 | Coca-Cola Football League One | 24th of 24 (r) |
1998-1999 | 32 | Nationwide League Division One | 17th of 24 |
1996-1997 | 32 | Nationwide League Division One | 19th of 24 |
2014-2015 | 32 | Sky Bet Football League One | 4th of 24 |
2008-2009 | 31 | Coca-Cola Football League One | 15th of 24 |
2015-2016 | 29 | Sky Bet Football League One | |
1956-1957 | 29 | Football League Division Three (South) | 23rd of 24 (r) |
1958-1959 | 29 | Football League Division Three | 15th of 24 |
2009-2010 | 29 | Coca-Cola Football League One | 5th of 24 |
2001-2002 | 29 | Nationwide League Division Two | 13th of 24 |
2002-2003 | 29 | Nationwide League Division Two | 10th of 24 |
1973-1974 | 27 | Football League Division Two | 22nd of 22 (r) |
1954-1955 | 27 | Football League Division Three (South) | 21st of 24 |
2003-2004 | 27 | Nationwide League Division Two | 5th of 24 |
1990-1991 | 27 | Barclays League Division Two | 21st of 24 |
1995-1996 | 26 | Endsleigh Insurance League Division Two | 1st of 24 (p) |
1993-1994 | 26 | FA Carling Premiership | 22nd of 22 (r) |
1949-1950 | 26 | Football League Division Three (South) | 14th of 22 |
1950-1951 | 26 | Football League Division Three (South) | 17th of 24 |
1959-1960 | 26 | Football League Division Three | 16th of 24 |
1926-1927 | 26 | Football League Division Three (South) | 5th of 22 |
1923-1924 | 25 | Football League Division Three (South) | 6th of 22 |
1921-1922 | 25 | Football League Division Three (South) | 6th of 22 |
1957-1958 | 25 | Football League Division Three (South) | 4th of 24 |
1964-1965 | 25 | Football League Division Two | 21st of 22 (r) |
1946-1947 | 25 | Football League Division Three (South) | 4th of 22 |
1947-1948 | 25 | Football League Division Three (South) | 16th of 22 |
1986-1987 | 25 | Today League Division Three | 3rd of 24 (p) |
1987-1988 | 25 | Barclays League Division Two | 12th of 23 |
1984-1985 | 25 | Canon League Division Four | 8th of 24 |
1980-1981 | 24 | Football League Division Three | 17th of 24 |
1935-1936 | 24 | Football League Division Three (South) | 19th of 22 |
1925-1926 | 24 | Football League Division Three (South) | 6th of 22 |
1955-1956 | 24 | Football League Division Three (South) | 24th of 24 |
1938-1939 | 24 | Football League Division Three (South) | 9th of 22 |
1965-1966 | 24 | Football League Division Three | 7th of 24 |
1971-1972 | 24 | Football League Division Two | 11th of 22 |
1927-1928 | 24 | Football League Division Three (South) | 6th of 22 |
1932-1933 | 24 | Football League Division Three (South) | 22 of 22 (r) |
1929-1930 | 23 | Football League Division Three (South) | 14th of 22 |
1920-1921 | 23 | Football League Division Three | 4th of 22 |
1972-1973 | 23 | Football League Division Two | 16th of 22 |
1961-1962 | 23 | Football League Division Three | 9th of 24 |
1951-1952 | 23 | Football League Division Three (South) | 16th of 24 |
1952-1953 | 23 | Football League Division Three (South) | 18th of 24 |
1937-1938 | 23 | Football League Division Three (South) | 8th of 22 |
1948-1949 | 23 | Football League Division Three (South) | 4th of 22 |
1975-1976 | 23 | Football League Division Three | 19th of 24 |
1989-1990 | 23 | Barclays League Division Two | 4th of 24 (p) |
1991-1992 | 23 | Barclays League Division Two | 8th of 24 |
1992-1993 | 22 | Barclays League Division One | 5th of 24 (p) |
1976-1977 | 22 | Football League Division Three | 11th of 24 |
1985-1986 | 22 | Canon League Division Four | 1st of 24 (p) |
1953-1954 | 22 | Football League Division Three (South) | 20th of 24 |
1962-1963 | 22 | Football League Division Three | 2nd of 24 (p) |
1963-1964 | 22 | Football League Division Two | 14th of 22 |
1970-1971 | 22 | Football League Division Two | 12th of 22 |
1966-1967 | 22 | Football League Division Three | 8th of 24 |
1930-1931 | 22 | Football League Division Three (South) | 12th of 22 |
1924-1925 | 22 | Football League Division Three (South) | 4th of 22 |
1928-1929 | 21 | Football League Division Three (South) | 10th of 22 |
1931-1932 | 21 | Football League Division Three (South) | 17th of 22 |
1933-1934 | 21 | Football League Division Three (South) | 8th of 22 |
1922-1923 | 21 | Football League Division Three (South) | 9th of 22 |
1967-1968 | 21 | Football League Division Three | 10th of 24 |
1936-1937 | 21 | Football League Division Three (South) | 13th of 22 |
1981-1982 | 21 | Football League Division Three | 22nd of 24 (r) |
1978-1979 | 21 | Football League Division Three | 5th of 24 |
1979-1980 | 21 | Football League Division Three | 10th of 24 |
1983-1984 | 21 | Football League Division Four | 17th of 24 |
1988-1989 | 20 | Barclays League Division Two | 6th of 24 |
1960-1961 | 20 | Football League Division Three | 16th of 24 |
1974-1975 | 20 | Football League Division Three | 4th of 24 |
1934-1935 | 20 | Football League Division Three (South) | 16th of 22 |
1977-1978 | 19 | Football League Division Three | 10th of 24 |
1982-1983 | 19 | Football League Division Four | 8th of 24 |
1969-1970 | 18 | Football League Division Two | 5th of 22 |
1968-1969 | 16 | Football League Division Three | 2nd of 24 (p) |
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