Match Preview: MK Dons vs Swindon Town

Form Guide…

6th placed Swindon have five League One games remaining. Town were defeated 0-1 at Doncaster Rovers on Easter Monday and are currently 18th in the form guide with one win, three draws and two defeats. On their travels, Swindon are 2nd in the away form guide with four wins and two defeats.

MK Dons are 10th and 7 points behind Swindon, also with five games remaining. MK Dons played out a goalless draw with Crawley Town at Stadium:MK on Saturday to make three games unbeaten. The Dons are 5th in the form guide with three wins, one draw and two defeats. As hosts, MK Dons are unbeaten in three games and 6th in the form guide with three wins, two draws and one defeat. Dons haven’t conceded as hosts for three games.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced MK Dons on 14 occasions, winning 6, drawing 3 and suffering 5 defeats, scoring 17 goals and conceding 15.

In Milton Keynes, Swindon have won 3, drawn 1 and defeated 3 times, scoring 11 and conceding 10.

In Swindon’s previous two visits they’ve been defeated 2-1.

Swindon have never failed to score in their seven visits to Milton Keynes.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
MK (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r MK (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 7.6 4 8.2 1 Shots For Per Game 12.4 9 11.9 1
% Shots Against on Target 45.6% 7 52.4% 17 % Shots For on Target 45.3% 24 59.2% 2
% Save Rate 72.6% 18 80.2% 4 % Strike Rate 12.7% 8 11.3% 13
Corners Against Per Game 3.1 1 5.1 5 Corners Won Per Game 6.2 7 7.5 1
Possession Conceded 44.5% 1 47.7% 3 Possession Won 55.5% 1 52.3% 3
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst | TheWashbag.com

MK Dons are effective in defence as hosts with the 6th fewest total of goals conceded. This is reflected in these rankings which highlight Dons’ possession dominance really restricting their opponents chances at goal.

One area where Mk Dons perform exceptionally well is they’re well drilled to avoid conceding set pieces. The average of 3.1 corners conceded per game is marginally better than Swindon’s (as hosts), but could indicate that, if Town could win several corners more than MK’s average they’ll put them under real pressure.

MK Dons have scored the 5th highest goals of any host, however if their percentage of shots on target could increase above the division low of 45.3% then the firepower is there push the Dons towards a promotion challenge next season.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
MK (as hosts) 8 3 8 0 4 6 4 0
STFC (away) 2 4 6 0 5 3 5 2

MK Dons have scored an average of just under 2 goals per game in their previous 6 games as hosts. However, there has been no clear pattern in those games, just typically goals scored in both the first and second halves.

Two goals for Swindon towards the end of the win at Yeovil has bumped up the tally late-on, but the periods either side of half time remain when the attack is at it’s most potent.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
MK (as hosts) 4 7 1 1 2 3 1 1
STFC (away) 4 5 2 0 0 2 3 1

Plenty of goals have been conceded by the hosts in the opening 30 minutes at Stadium:MK, indicating that after they’ve typically opened the scoring they’ve been quickly pegged back. MK have won 11 clean sheets from 21 home games this season.

Meanwhile Swindon travel and typically concede within the opening 30 minutes. However in Town’s two previous defeats at Brentford and Doncaster goals have been conceded post 70-minutes.

My prediction…

We need a win, however MK Dons have picked up their form and are difficult to beat at home. Also Dons have secured 11 clean sheets from their 21 games at Stadium:MK this season, so scoring will be very tough for a Swindon attack that’s already lacking form.

This looks like a goalless draw, which doesn’t help either side…

Come on You Reds!

One comment

  • ghost of malpas

    The slow dawn of reality casts its ghostly hue across the portals of The Washbag. All those unlikely predicted victories ! A draw for me too, but 1 – 1.

    Like

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