Match Preview: Swindon Town vs Oldham Athletic

Form Guide… 

2nd placed Swindon drew 0-0 with Notts County last weekend. Town’s six match form guide reads two wins, two draws and two defeats, putting Swindon 15th in current form. As hosts, Swindon are without a win in five games, with a record of one win, four draws and one defeat in six.

Oldham Athletic arrive in Wiltshire in 20th and one point ahead of Scunthorpe United. The Lactics beat Hartlepool United 3-0 to put them 11th in the current form guide with three wins and three defeats. However, on their travels, Athletic have been defeated in their previous game at Tranmere, to give them a record of one win, one draw and four defeats in six.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Oldham Athletic on 46 occasions, winning 18, drawing 11 and defeated 17 times; scoring 72 and conceding 65.

At the County Ground, Swindon have a good record of 13 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats, scoring 43 and conceding 26.

Oldham beat Swindon 2-0 in their previous visit to the County Ground in April 2011.

In previous games when Swindon have scored against Oldham, two or more goals have been scored in the last 9 meetings.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  STFC (Hosts) r Oldham (Away) r   STFC (Hosts) r Oldham (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 5.7 1 12.2 16 Shots For Per Game 11.2 13 10.3 6
% Shots Against on Target 38% 2 55% 22 % Shots For on Target 47.5% 19 45.4% 18
% Save Rate 69.8% 19 77.8% 10 % Strike Rate 16.1% 2 9.2% 23
Corners Against Per Game 3.4 2 5.4 8 Corners Won Per Game 7.4 2 4.9 12
Possession Conceded 47.7% 8 53.8% 21 Possession Won 52.3% 8 46.2% 21
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst | TheWashbag.com

We can expect Oldham to surrender plenty of possession on Good Friday, indicating that Town will improve upon their average of 52.3%.

There appear to be two key Oldham weaknesses: firstly allowing their opponents space to create 55% of shots on target; and secondly their woeful strike rate scoring 1 goal for more than every 10 shots in total.

After several weeks as the host with the highest strike rate, Swindon finally lose their top spot following the goalless draw with Notts County. Tranmere Rovers have taken over with a marginally stronger rate of 16.15%

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 6  7 5 0 4 7 6 1
Oldham (away) 1  2 2 0 3 3 4 2

Swindon typically start strong as hosts having opened the scoring in eight of their previous eleven games at the County Ground. Opening the scoring has been crucial to Town’s success with Swindon losing their previous two games as host when conceding first – versus Brentford and Bury.

Oldham clearly need a half time bollocking to inspire more action in front of goal.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 2 1 3 0 4 2 1 0
Oldham (away) 1 3 5 0 5 7 5 2

Swindon’s goal conceded at home versus Walsall in the 90th minute was our first in the later phase of the game as hosts this season.

With Oldham’s game typically opening up after half time, while this allows them opportunities to score, they’ve suffered with a significantly higher percentage of goals scored after the break.

My prediction… 

After being winless in five games as hosts Swindon really need to pick up more than one point at the County Ground against Oldham if we’re going to make any impression in the automatic promotion places and catch Doncaster.

A home win…

1-0

Come on You Reds!

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