Match Preview: Swindon Town vs Notts County

Form Guide… 

3rd placed Swindon beat fellow promotion chasers Yeovil Town in midweek 2-0 at Huish Park to add to the significant goal difference tally and increase a 3 point lead to the Glovers in 7th place.

Town’s six match form guide reads two wins, two draws and two defeats, putting Swindon 13th in current form. As hosts, Swindon are without a win in four games, with a record of two wins, three draws and one defeat in six.

Notts County arrive in Wiltshire on the back of an improvement in form, seeing the Magpies moving up to 11th on 57 points. County won their last game at 1-0 vs Scunthorpe at Meadow Lane to put them 11th in the current form guide with two wins, three draws and one defeat.

However, on their travels, Notts County have drawn their previous three games and without a win in five. Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Notts County on 59 occasions, winning 25, drawing 11 and defeated 23 times; scoring 85 and conceding 77.

At the County Ground, Swindon have a good record of 19 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats, scoring 63 and conceding 31.

However, the Magpies beat Swindon 2-1 on their previous visit in April 2011 – a result which sent plenty of season tickets thrown in the direction of Paul Hart in the dugout.

Swindon have never failed to score against Notts County at the County Ground.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  STFC (Hosts) r Notts (Away) r   STFC (Hosts) r Notts (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 5.7 1 12 15 Shots For Per Game 11.2 13 9.4 15
% Shots Against on Target 38% 2 48.9% 12 % Shots For on Target 47.2% 19 48.6% 15
% Save Rate 68.3% 19 83.8% 1 % Strike Rate 17% 1 14.5% 6
Corners Against Per Game 3.4 2 5.7 9 Corners Won Per Game 7.4 2 4.7 15
Possession Conceded 47.9% 9 51.3% 9 Possession Won 52.1% 9 48.7% 9
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst |

The contrast in defensive terms if the save rate percentage with Notts County’s 83.8% the strongest of any away side in League One, however Town’s is 68.3% and 19th strongest.

In Town’s previous four home games, the opposition have had 9 strikes on target and scored 5, which is a 55% save rate on current form and clearly room for improvement for Wes Foderingham.

With Notts’ defence one of the strongest in the division, fortunately Town have the most clinical attack which can provide the perfect opportunity to make use of our likely few chances come Saturday.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 6  7 5 0 4 7 6 1
Notts (away) 2  4 4 1 5 2 7 1

Swindon typically start strong as hosts having opened the scoring in eight of their previous ten games at the County Ground. Opening the scoring has been crucial to Town’s success with Swindon losing their previous two games as host when conceding first – versus Brentford and Bury.

Notts County start slowly and have their most effective period in the final 15 minutes with 7 of their 26 goals scored.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 2 1 3 0 4 2 1 0
Notts (away) 3 3 0 1 2 5 4 0

Swindon’s goal conceded at home versus Walsall in the 90th minute was our first in the later phase of the game as hosts this season.

County have only conceded 18 goals on their travels, the 4th tightest away defence in League One.

My prediction… 

After being winless in four games as hosts does the visit of Notts County present a better opportunity than Hartlepool, Preston, Bury and Walsall to secure 3 points? Hopefully…

A home win…


Come on You Reds!

One comment

  • from an old robin first match 75 years ago sat on the old mans shoulders at the county ground , saw the Yeovil game on the computer the other night play the same no worries its the new management you have to worry about how genuine are they they are in it for the money if there is going to be any, I will always get a thrill from seeing the Robins results on Saturday afternoon , oh by the way as i live in Norfolk now I am a Norwich city supporter we are very similar only a bit farther up yes 27 thousand supporters every game come on Swindon get behind & support your team you have been so bad since the old days.
    Kind Regards John Clifford late of Cricklade


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