Match Preview: Yeovil Town vs Swindon Town

Form Guide…

5th placed Swindon are falling down the League One form table, now 13th, with a record of two wins, two draws and two defeats in six games.

Away from the County Ground, Town lost 1-2 at Brentford a week ago and have a record of three wins and two draws and one defeat in six League One games; putting Swindon 5th in the away form guide. Swindon haven’t failed to score on their travels for five games.

Yeovil Town are the division’s surprise package under Gary Johnson. The Glovers are level on 63 points with Swindon, but behind on goal difference. In their previous six outings, Yeovil are unbeaten in three games with two wins, three draws and one defeat in six.

As hosts, Yeovil are unbeaten in nine League One games in a run stretching back to mid-November and the visit of Carlisle United who traveled back to Cumbria with a 3-1 win. Yeovil drew their last game at Huish Park 2-2 with Crawley, before that they won seven in a row. Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Yeovil on 14 occasions, winning 8, drawing 2 and suffering 4 defeats, scoring 28 goals and conceding 13.

At Huish Park, Town have 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 11 scored and 4 conceded.

Swindon drew 3-3 in our previous visit to Yeovil in October 2010 with goals from Charlie Austin, Sean Morrison and JP McGovern.

Yeovil’s 4 goals scored as hosts versus Swindon have only come in two games.

Swindon have scored in 5 of 7 trips to Somerset.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
Yeo (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r Yeo (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 7.5 3 7.9 1 Shots For Per Game 11.1 15 12.4 1
% Shots Against on Target 49.7% 12 52.5% 19 % Shots For on Target 47.6% 17 59.2% 2
% Save Rate 73.2% 14 78.7% 8 % Strike Rate 15.7% 3 11.2% 15
Corners Against Per Game 4.6 8 5 3 Corners Won Per Game 4.8 22 8.1 1
Possession Conceded 47.9% 9 47.2% 2 Possession Won 52.1% 9 52.8% 2
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst |

There is little to separate the sides in defensive terms, with only Wes Foderingham’s save rate significantly outscoring Yeovil.

Yeovil’s attacking efficiency does highlight their high quality finishing as hosts with 15.7% of all shots have been scored, ranked 3rd best in League One. This contrasts with Swindon’s very high average shots per game, % of shots on target, corners won and possession won, but for an average 11.2% strike rate.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
Yeo (as hosts) 3 5 7 0 3 6 8 1
STFC (away) 2 4 6 0 5 3 4 1

Yeovil are slow out of the blocks and progress to be an effective attacking force as each half progresses.

Swindon have been more dangerous in attack during the two 15 minute periods either side of half time away from home.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
Yeo (as hosts) 4 3 2 0 4 4 2 1
STFC (away) 4 5 2 0 0 2 2 1

Two goals conceded at Brentford in the second half added a signification proportion to the tally.

Yeovil’s goals against as hosts are spread about, with only a marginal improvement towards the end of each half, which is interesting considering their lethal finishing in those periods. Clearly Yeovil haven’t allowed their attacking endeavours to come at the expense of the defence.

My prediction…

As much as I’d want a Swindon win, this game has a score draw written all over it…

2-2 final score.

Come on You Reds!

One comment

  • Having watched the home game, I’m not surprised at some of these stats. At the CG, Yeovil set up in a very rigid 442 relying on set piece delivery and height to earn a handful of chances. This would seem to fit with their slow starting nature – the need to earn set pieces and efficient strike rate – knock-downs converted into close range shots.

    A 451 must be tempting for MacDonald as their full-backs looked pretty defensive and so could easily be occupied by one forward. This would liberate an attacking midfielder to move between their lines and give Town the ability to pass round the Yeovil central pair. A pairing who were really dreadful in the home game – far too lightweight and far too wasteful in possession. They were so bad I think one was taken off at half-time.

    Obviously they can’t be as dour as they were at the County Ground. Can they?


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