Match Preview: Swindon Town vs Bury

Form Guide… 

2nd placed Swindon are unbeaten in thirteen League One matches. At the County Ground, Town have won four and drawn twice in their previous six games, conceding only twice. Town haven’t failed to score as hosts in seven games.

Bury sit firmly in the relegation zone in 22nd place and 8 points adrift from safety. The Shakers have been within the bottom four all season, bar following three matches in August.

They travel to Swindon having lost their previous three games in succession and without a win in four matches. Away from Gigg Lane, Bury are without a victory in seven games.  Bury have only won twice on their travels, at Scunthorpe and Oldham Athletic with a 2-1 margin of victory in both games. Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Bury on 44 occasions, winning 21, drawing 11 and defeated 12 times; scoring 56 and conceding 42.

At the County Ground, Swindon have a record of 14 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 41 and conceding 16.

Swindon have beaten Bury in our previous six meetings – 3-0, 3-0, 3-1, 2-1, 1-0 and 1-0.

Bury’s most recent victory was a 1-0 win at Gigg Lane in Division Two in December 2000 with a Paul Barnes strike after 30 minutes.

Swindon are unbeaten as hosts against Bury for twelve games. The Shakers’ last victory at the County Ground was in April 1977.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  STFC (Hosts) r Bury (Away) r   STFC (Hosts) r Bury (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 5.7 1 11.4 13 Shots For Per Game 11.5 13 9.1 17
% Shots Against on Target 39.2% 3 50% 16 % Shots For on Target 47.5% 17 48.1% 13
% Save Rate 73.7% 13 70.7% 21 % Strike Rate 17.4% 1 11.7% 14
Corners Against Per Game 3.4 2 6.2 15 Corners Won Per Game 7.6 1 4.9 11
Possession Conceded 48.3% 12 54.3% 23 Possession Won 51.7% 12 45.7% 23
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst |

A key reason why Bury have struggled to perform on their travels appears to be the amount of possession conceded. While they’re not giving away an equally very high proportion of shots and corners, their weak save rate ensures a better than 1 in 4 chance of scoring.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 5  7 5 0 4 7 5 1
Bury (away) 3  2 1 0 3 6 3 0

Swindon typically start strong as hosts having opened the scoring in seven of their previous eight games at the County Ground. A comeback against Preston ensured an eight game unbeaten run as hosts.

In the previous seven away games, Bury have only scored once in the first half. The mid part of the second half appears to be their strongest period of the match.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 2 0 2 0 4 2 0 0
Bury (away) 4 2 4 0 7 7 3 2

A second half comeback by Notts County at the weekend ensured they’ve conceded all six goals in their previous two games between 46-75 minutes.

My prediction… 

Bury haven’t traveled well to Swindon for many years and with the Shakers in the relegation mix and winless on the road for seven games, surely Town will be strong enough to secure victory. 3-0 to Swindon.

Come on You Reds!

One comment

  • I wouldn’t read too much into Bury’s possession stats, their approach and style of play away from home means these stats are inevitable. The main concern for the Shakers is the number of individual defensive mistakes made in the second half of games. When Bury lead, albeit rarely this season, they have held on to at least a point and I expect the same to happen tonight if they find themselves ahead.


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