Match Preview: Tranmere Rovers vs Swindon

Form Guide… 

6th placed Swindon are undefeated in eleven matches in a run that has included 6 wins, 5 draws, 23 goals and 4 conceded.

Away from the County Ground, Town beat Colchester United 1-0  last time out and have a record of two wins, three draws and one defeat in six League One games; putting Swindon 9th in the away form guide.

Following a run of three defeats in succession, Tranmere have dropped to 5th, which equals their lowest league position this season. As hosts, Rovers have lost their previous two games in succession at Prenton Park – 0-1 vs Carlisle and 0-2 vs Shrewsbury – so their six game form guide reads two wins and four defeats. Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Tranmere Rovers on 63 occasions, winning 26, drawing 16 and suffering 21 defeats, scoring 96 goals and conceding 79.

At Prenton Park, Town have 6 wins, 8 draws and 17 defeats, with 36 scored and 51 conceded.

Swindon are unbeaten in seven of our previous meetings. Tranmere’s last victory was a 2-1 win as hosts in March 2008.

Swindon have recorded victories on our two previous visits to Birkenhead – 2-0 in May 2011 and 4-1 in October 2009.

Tranmere have only failed to score against Swindon as hosts once in our previous seven trips.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  Tran (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r   Tran (Hosts) r  STFC  (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 9.1 7 7.9 1 Shots For Per Game 9.1 21 11.9 2
% Shots Against on Target 43.8% 6 53.4% 20 % Shots For on Target 40.7% 22 57.9% 3
% Save Rate 78% 6 81% 4 % Strike Rate 17.2% 2 10.7% 17
Corners Against Per Game 4.9 11 5 6 Corners Won Per Game 6 10 7.5 1
Possession Conceded 47.3% 6 46.9% 2 Possession Won 52.7% 6 53.1% 2
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst |

In attacking terms, Tranmere Rovers are very clinical and effective finishers as hosts, a statistic helped by a low number of shots per game – the third fewest in League One. With 25 goals at Prenton Park from just 59 shots on target all season, opposition ‘keepers need to be alert against the Rovers. Tranmere have only failed to score as hosts four times this season.

Swindon’s potential weakness is the relatively high percentage of chances the opposition get to test Wes Foderingham, with 53.4% of all shots calling the ‘keeper into action. Also… take a look at Town’s strike rate of 1 goal scored per 10 shots, which has dropped significantly over recent weeks after failing to score more than one goal in the previous four away games.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
Tran (as hosts) 0  1 6 0 7 5 6 0
STFC (away) 2  4 5 0 4 2 2 0

I can’t believe Tranmere’s stats are correct, but they are. They’ve scored only once as hosts in the opening 30 minutes of a League One match. That goal was scored against Crawley.

Rovers are clearly more lethal in attack after half time., whereas Town get stronger as the first half progresses and straight after the break.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
Tran (as hosts) 3 1 1 0 3 2 2 2
STFC (away) 3 5 2 0 0 1 0 1

Not much really happens in the first half at Prenton Park. After the vast majority of goals are scored after half time, Tranmere are equally effective in defence with just 4 conceded all season at home in the opening 45. Town rarely concede in the second half.

My prediction… 

Tranmere are on an awful run of form, however, whether Swindon will secure another 5-0 victory against their hosts is unlikely as I will have expected Ronnie Moore to learn the lessons of their defeat at the County Ground in December.

Still, surely Town will have enough to inflict further misery on Rovers, my prediction is a 2-0 Swindon win.

Come on You Reds!

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