Match Preview: Tranmere Rovers vs Swindon Town

Form Guide… 

4th placed Swindon are undefeated in seven matches in a run that has included 5 wins, 2 draws, 20 goals and 2 conceded.

Away from the County Ground, Town drew 1-1 at AFC Bournemouth last time out and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in six League One games; putting Swindon 5th in the away form guide.

Top of the table Tranmere Rovers have surprised many by their excellent recovery after a 5-0 thumping at the County Ground before Christmas. After that defeat, Rovers have gone on a run of 5 wins and 2 defeats, including a 2-1 victory at Griffin Park last Saturday to secure their place at the summit. As hosts, Rovers have won their previous three games at Prenton Park. Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Tranmere Rovers on 63 occasions, winning 26, drawing 16 and suffering 21 defeats, scoring 96 goals and conceding 79.

At Prenton Park, Town have 6 wins, 8 draws and 17 defeats, with 36 scored and 51 conceded.

Swindon are unbeaten in seven of our previous meetings. Tranmere’s last victory was a 2-1 win as hosts in March 2008.

Swindon have recorded victories on our two previous visits to Birkenhead – 2-0 in May 2011 and 4-1 in October 2009.

Tranmere have only failed to score against Swindon as hosts once in our previous seven trips.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  Tran (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r   Tran (Hosts) r  STFC  (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 9.1 7 7.6 1 Shots For Per Game 8.4 23 11.4 2
% Shots Against on Target 41.4% 5 51.7% 19 % Shots For on Target 43.2% 22 57.7% 2
% Save Rate 79.3% 5 76.6% 11 % Strike Rate 21.2% 1 12.4% 14
Corners Against Per Game 4.8 11 4.9 6 Corners Won Per Game 6 13 6.9 1
Possession Conceded 45.8% 3 46.4% 2 Possession Won 54.2% 3 53.6% 2
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst |

In attacking terms, Tranmere Rovers are the most clinical and effective finishers as hosts, a statistic helped by a low number of shots per game – the second fewest in League One. With 25 goals at Prenton Park from just 51 shots on target all season, opposition ‘keepers just don’t stand a chance against the Rovers. Tranmere have only failed to score as hosts twice this season.

Swindon’s potential weakness is the relatively high percentage of chances the opposition get to test Wes Foderingham, with 51.7% of all shots calling the ‘keeper into action.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
Tran (as hosts) 0  1 6 0 7 5 6 0
STFC (away) 2  4 5 0 2 2 2 0

I can’t believe Tranmere’s stats are correct, but they are. They’ve scored only once as hosts in the opening 30 minutes of a League One match. That goals was scored in their previous match against Crawley.

Rovers are clearly more lethal in attack after half time., whereas Town get stronger as the first half progresses.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
Tran (as hosts) 2 1 0 0 3 1 2 2
STFC (away) 3 4 2 0 0 1 0 1

Not much really happens in the first half at Prenton Park. After the vast majority of goals are scored after half time, Tranmere are equally effective in defence with just 3 conceded all season at home in the opening 45.

My prediction… 

This is a tricky one to put a prediction on the result. Both sides are in-form and I doubt the 5-0 result before Christmas can really be taken as an indication of another heavy Swindon victory as surely Ronnie Moore has learnt his lesson.

There will be goals, and Swindon are odds on to score first, but can we hold off a lethal Rovers attack for another three points? I hope so, but Tranmere will come back in the second half and probably secure a 1-1 draw.

My other prediction is for the number of shots on target for Tranmere, they’ll have 3.

Come on You Reds!

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