Match Preview: AFC Bournemouth vs Swindon Town

Form Guide… 

5th placed Swindon are on a run of four wins in a row, which has seen Town score for fun with 16 goals and four clean sheets. Away from the County Ground, Swindon won last time out – 2-0 at Oldham – and have only been defeated twice in six outings. Town are ranked the fifth strongest away side in League One with a return of 1.82 points per game.

7th placed AFC Bournemouth are unbeaten since Eddie Howe rejoined on 12th October 2012. The Cherries have a record of four wins and two draws in the previous six League One games. At Dean Court, Bournemouth have won five and drawn one in six and are ranked second strongest of all hosts with a return of 2 points per game.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced AFC Bournemouth / Bournemouth and Boscombe Athletic on 111 occasions, winning 38, drawing 30 and suffering 43 defeats, scoring 166 goals and conceding 178.

At Dean Court, Town have 6 wins, 18 draws and 30 defeats, with 50 scored and 110 conceded.

Swindon are without a win in Bournemouth in 23 years. The 2-1 win in April 1990 with goals from Fitzroy Simpson and Jon Gittens has been followed by four draws and four defeats.

AFC Bournemouth have scored at least twice as hosts against Swindon in the previous five meetings.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  AFCB (Hosts) r STFC (Away) r   AFCB (Hosts) r  STFC  (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 7.9 6 7.2 1 Shots For Per Game 15.9 1 11.5 2
% Shots Against on Target 42.7% 7 49.4% 15 % Shots For on Target 52.4% 4 57.1% 3
% Save Rate 75% 7 74.4% 12 % Strike Rate 12.1% 14 12.7% 13
Corners Against Per Game 3.2 2 4.7 4 Corners Won Per Game 8.2 1 7.3 1
Possession Conceded 45.2% 2 46.2% 3 Possession Won 54.8% 2 53.8% 3
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst | TheWashbag.com

AFC Bournemouth have the highest average shots per game of any host in League One, with a very reasonable 52% on target. While their strike rate is middle-ranking at 12.1% this reflects the very high total shots per game.

Both sides are evenly matched in terms of their respective ranking as hosts or the away side. With both securing a similar amount of possession, will the match become an even, end-to-end affair, or will the defensive strengths win?

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
AFCB (as hosts) 2  4 3 0 5 6 4 1
STFC (away) 2  4 5 0 2 2 1 0

Despite being high-scoring as hosts, the Cherries have only scored once in five games during the opening 30 minutes.

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
AFCB (as hosts) 2 1 2 0 0 3 3 0
STFC (away) 3 3 2 0 0 1 0 1

Bournemouth haven’t conceded in the previous three home games and only once in the second half in eight games.

Swindon haven’t conceded in the opening 15 minutes of a League One away game for 8 matches. Town also haven’t conceded in the second half of an away match for 7 games.

My prediction… 

Can free-scoring Swindon take our home form to Bournemouth where we’ve hardly secured good results over the years. Because both sides are in-form it’s difficult to judge   a winner, however hopefully we can inflict a first defeat for Eddie Howe…. 3-2 to Swindon.

Come on You Reds!

4 comments

  • Strange, isn’t it? Bournemouth were a shambles at the County Ground, even with some very good players. Now they are one of the best teams in the division. All because they brought in a manager who have them a shape and a plan.

    Experimental 361 said: “You should exploit the right flank where you’ve scored 17 goals from open play (FL highest) & they’ve conceded 11 (3rd highest).”

    A game for Matt Ritchie to show his best then?

    Might be a horrible nil-nil draw….

    Like

  • I have been hoping that AFC’s run would continue until we met them because 1) I firmly believe the longer the run, the more likely it will end, 2) I genuinely believe we are the better team and 3) we will get more credit for ending their run.

    I just wish I was there to enjoy it.

    Like

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