Match Preview: Swindon Town vs Scunthorpe United

Form Guide… 

6th placed Swindon have won four, drawn one and suffered one defeat in our previous six matches in League One. At the County Ground, Town drew the last game 2-2 with Coventry City and have three wins, one draw and two defeats in six matches.

Scunthorpe United are 22nd. Interestingly, Swindon have yet to face an opponent in League One who were above us in the table before each game since the match with Crawley some 11 games ago. The Iron have one win, two draws and three defeats in six League One matches. Away from Glanford Park, Scunny are without a victory in three matches. Head-to-Head…

In all League, FA Cup and Football League competitions, Town have faced Scunhtorpe United on 19 occasions, winning 8, drawing 6 and defeated 5 times; scoring 31 and conceding 29.

At the County Ground, Swindon have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats, scoring 18 and conceding 8.

Four of the previous five matches at the County Ground between the sides has ended in a draw.

The previous meeting at the County Ground in February 2009 ended in a 4-2 victory for the hosts.

The Stats…

Defence Attack
  STFC (Hosts) r Scun (Away) r   STFC (Hosts) r  Scun   (Away) r
Shots Against Per Game 5.7 1 12.7 21 Shots For Per Game 9 18 8.2 18
% Shots Against on Target 35.3% 4 51.3% 15 % Shots For on Target 51.9% 9 44.4% 15
% Save Rate 66.7% 18 77% 10 % Strike Rate 18.5% 2 4.2% 24
Corners Against Per Game 4.8 9 5 8 Corners Won Per Game 5.8 13 6.7 3
Possession Conceded 52.3% 22 52.7% 12 Possession Won 47.7% 22 47.3% 12
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst |

Last week I said: “The two home defeats by Leyton Orient and Colchester proved that its all well and good restricting our opponents to the fewest shots average per game and second fewest percentage on target, we’ve not been at our sharpest and conceded sloppy goals.” Add two more against Coventry last weekend and we still haven’t corrected this issue.

Also, take a look at Wes’ save rate, now standing at 66.7% after the Coventry game and ranked 18th of all hosts in League One; is this the fault of Wes or the defence?

Fortunately, the clinical strike rate of 18.5% – ranked 2nd of hosts in League One – gets us out of jail, as it did against Coventry. If Town were able to get in the box more often and then, importantly, get a shot at goal, then we’d be a real force to be reckoned with at the County Ground – like last season.

SCORED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 1  2 2 0 0 2 3 0
Scun (away) 3  0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Town’s two late goals against Coventry now indicate that Paolo’s pre-season regime may be coming to fruition. Any suggestions as to why we’ve been slow out of the blocks after the half time oranges?

Town have now not suffered a defeat after scoring first in a League or Cup game in 25 matches, so get your ‘In-Play’ betting working if we take the lead. Results under Paolo suggest Town will have a 91% chance of winning after scoring first.

Scunthorpe have yet to score after the first 1-15 minute period of an away match in League One. Bizarre…

CONCEDED 1-15 16-30 31-45 45+ 46-60 61-75 76-90 90+
STFC (as hosts) 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0
Scun (away) 1 1 2 0 0 2 3 0

Scunthorpe’s conceding periods mirrors our scoring periods really closely, so I’d predict goals for Swindon towards the end of each half.

My prediction… 

With Town very reliant on scoring first, Scunthorpe come here with a record of scoring early in the few times they’ve hit the net on their travels. If Town buck the recent trend and don’t fall to an early mistake the looks odds on for a Town victory.

Leon Clarke will probably score and rub Paolo’s nose in it, so it’ll end a 2-1 victory for Swindon.

Come on You Reds!

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