Match Preview: Swindon vs Burton Albion

Form… Second placed Swindon are currently on a run of one defeat – at Torquay on Boxing Day – in sixteen League Two matches. Town’s current form guide reads five wins and that one defeat in the previous six League Two outings, including the current unbeaten run of five victories against Northampton, AFC Wimbledon, Rotherham, Macclesfield and Southend.

At the County Ground, Town are unbeaten since August, making it ten games without defeat and 26 points from a possible 30. Swindon have won their past four games as hosts and haven’t conceded in six games.

Ninth placed Burton Albion have slipped out of the play-off positions and dropping behind the breakaway group searching for automatic promotion. A fall from a recent high of 5th has come as a result of a winless run of six games, drawing three and suffering three defeats. Burton have drawn their previous two games at home top Oxford and away at Bradford City.

Away from the Pirelli Stadium, the Brewers are without a win in three, since a Boxing Day 3-2 victory at Northampton. Burton have conceded at least one goal in each of their past eleven League Two games and seven games away from home. Head-to-Head… The sides have only faced each other once before, that was earlier this season when Burton Albion came out on top following a 2-0 victory; memorable… or not…for Mattia Lanzano’s goalkeeping masterclass…

What The Stats Say… Burton are ranked the 15th efficient side in League Two according to our latest combined home and away League Two rankings. Swindon are now ranked top.

Our rankings show the Brewers are ranked 12th based on home and away efficiency alone.

On their travels, Burton allow an average of 13 shots against per game (ranked 20th) with 47.8% of these on target (ranked 9th best).  However, the last line of defence hasn’t been up to the task saving 70% of shots which is ranked 18th in League Two.  You can also expect Swindon to win a high number of corners tomorrow with Burton conceding an average of 7.2 per game (ranked 22nd).

Turning to Burton’s attacking areas, their lowly average of 8.6 shots per game (ranked 20th) is more than made up through the accuracy in front of goal. 58% of Burton’s shots on their travels have been on target (ranked 1st) and a staggering 19.8% of shots have been scored (ranked 2nd). This hints at their attacking accuracy has been the key so far away from home and if only mistakes elsewhere were rectified, the Brewers would be a serious force.

The attacking efficiency is reflected in the number of goals scored, with 24 of the 41 coming on their travels. This tally has been bettered by only three other sides, Gillingham, Rotherham and Southend. You can count on Burton to score the majority after the break with 15 in the second half, including six in the final 15 minutes.

In defence, the Brewers have conceded 26 which is the third worst record in the division…they really are a Jekyll and Hyde team… The 15 minute periods either side of half time are when Burton are at their weak point, conceding 14 goals between 31-60 minutes.

As I keep saying…..Swindon Town have still yet to concede in time added on home or away this season… Prediction… 

Result: Swindon Win 73% | Burton Win 8% | Draw 19%

Full time result: Swindon 2-0 Burton 14% | Swindon 1-0 Burton 13%| Swindon 3-0 Burton 11% | Swindon 1-1 Burton 9% | Swindon 0-1 Burton 4%

My prediction… After the midweek comprehensive 4-1 stuffing of Southend United, Town usually turn out to be a different beast and struggle in this ‘type’ of game. What we’ve learned under Di Canio is that it’s never that simple anymore, with the Italian slowly, but surely, getting effective and consistent performances from his side.

With Town’s winless run at home stretching back longer than I can remember and Wes unbeaten between the posts for a good few months, how can you see past another Swindon victory and goals against the weak Burton defence…. Having said that I expect Foderingham to be beaten for the first time in a while at home, but we’ll outscore the Brewers….so that will make it 2-1 to the Reds.

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