League Two: The race to the title

In our first article reviewing the race to the title, Adam Johnson gives his predictions on the outcome of League Two.

Paolo Di Canio has made it quite clear all season what he expects, therefore what we expect, from the squad this season and that is to be singing along to Queen on the last day of the season.

That song has rarely graced the County Ground in my years of support but could it be time to fight through the CD collection, get past the famous Kramer song ‘we’re singing out for Swindon’ and dust off that classic ready for the penultimate league match at home on the 28th April?

However, we have to remember the other six or seven teams who hope to pip us to that title or automatic promotion spot. So let’s look those who could potentially spoil the fun and my predictions for where they will finish the season…

1st Cheltenham – Final Position: 4th

Shock of the season. No disrespect intended but no Cheltenham fan can believe they are in this position. What they have done brilliantly is use experienced heads like Steve Elliot, Josh Low and Daryl Duffy, to guide others around them to levels that are beyond what was before impossible.

The defence is exemplary, which is especially helpful in a team that doesn’t score many goals. Their issues are quite like ours a month ago but with a solid backline the problem isn’t noticeable. They have only scored 19 goals in 14 home games but when you – in that time – concede eight it’s going to work out.

Even though they are currently top, I can’t see them staying in the top three over the final leg of the season. Mark Yates is working wonders in my eyes but with others having better depth, I see Cheltenham in the playoffs.

3rd Southend – Final Position: 2nd

Before Tuesday night’s, if I may say so, romping, Southend only conceded 9 goals in 14 games. They looked a solid bet for the automatic spots but could this highlight a potential weakness? I’d still say they are in the band of automatic promotion hopefuls and one result shouldn’t change a season’s work.

They’ve scored plenty of goals from all areas of the pitch with a defender in Mark Phillips being one of top goalscorers and this gives them a constant threat.  There is one weakness that struck me and this is their lack of away ‘stubbornness’ as you could call it. Nine wins is very impressive but they’ve also lost four and drawn none.

I fancy Southend for the automatics, they have depth and ability and a manager who has been there and done it before.

4th Crawley – Final Position 3rd

There are different opinions on Crawley but whatever you think, they are a good side who have everything to achieve promotion at the first shot to League One.

They have lost Matt Tubbs who was their biggest threat but Tyrone Barnett has a similar record to that of Tubbs so they still have a decent threat, along with recent signings Karl Hawley, Billy Clarke and Sanchez Watt.

Having only lost three games all season, they have shown an ability to grind out results away from home and this over the coming months could help them. However, with their current away form being suspect – drawing the previous four – I’d say they’ll nick into the last automatic spot.

5th Shrewsbury – Final Position 5th

When you first look at Shrewsbury’s stats you wonder how they are not top. The Shrews are unbeaten at home, conceding only 7 goals in 13 games scoring 22.

They have a number of contributors with the goals such as Jim Collins and Marvin Morgan but again, away from home they also look shaky. It’s all good being unbeaten at home but once again, away points are the difference so much in football, especially in a search for automatic promotion.

Having only won 5 out of 14 away games, this could leave them short, but if they did make the playoffs, you’d have to back them to make the final and possibly promotion.

6th Torquay – Final Position 6th

A manager we all know well in Martin Ling and therefore a club we look favourably upon, as long as they don’t beat us of course.

Having lost Billy Bodin, they’ve still maintained their promotion credentials. To again look at it simply, they concede more goals than any of the other promotion hopefuls and draw too many games at home.

They have goals in the team but unlike Swindon, Southend, Crawley, and Cheltenham, they don’t keep many out at the other end to turn into a real threat to the automatic places.

7th Oxford United – Final Position 7th

Oxford begin the next branch of contenders that I’m calling ‘the outsiders’ along with many on the lower end of 40 points.

I believe, putting rivalry aside, Oxford could make the playoffs but it very much depends on being more consistent over the coming months. They have good players in James Constable and Peter Leven that can get them in the playoffs but the stats suggest that they don’t win enough games in a row to mount a real promotion push.

With others such as Burton, Accrington and Gillingham threatening behind, I think Oxford and others already in the playoffs have enough about them to make the top seven their own.

Outsider = Gillingham – Final Position 8th

Not a surprise package really, and a club that should be pushing for the playoffs. With a very poor away record keeping them out of the playoffs but a good home record keeping them in the reckoning, they could be the side to pip one of Oxford or Torquay into the playoffs.

They do leak in goals – with six conceded in two games – but overall do have a stronger defence and high scoring attack then their mid table rivals. If they sort it out at the back they’ll have the potential therefore to push it to the last day to stay in touch of a playoff spot.

Swindon Town…Champions!?

So, you can see this isn’t the most in depth analysis of the League Two situation, but the stats in the table can show us where people’s strengths and weaknesses are on the face of it.

However, in my honest opinion, I can’t see Swindon missing out on the League Two title. The rivals such as Crawley, Southend, and Cheltenham all have good squads but in terms of quality, we edge it.

I’m not one to praise Swindon too much as when I do, it goes wrong. However, with us on a roll, as well as a massive result at Southend, you can’t ignore that this team is champion material.

We’ll need to be stronger away from home picking up wins consistently, but with the bigger sides in the promotion hunt coming to the County Ground, it is almost in our hands to push on.

Now I’ve gone and said that, Swindon will finish 6th and I do apologise for setting your standards high. If we do finish top, you can buy me a copy of ‘we are the champions’ as I binned mine years ago.

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