Match Preview: Swindon at AFC Wimbledon

Form… 6th placed Swindon have been unbeaten in their past 6 League Two games and 3 cup games.

Town have won 4 and drawn 2 of their previous 6 League games. Away from home, recent victories at Accrington, Plymouth and Port Vale have made up for that awful start to the season on our travels.

11th placed AFC Wimbledon have been one of the division’s up and down sides. The Dons are currently winless in 5 League games following a 4 match unbeaten run in late September / early October that sent Wimbledon up to 3rd.

Since their last victory at home – a 3-1 victory over Gillingham on 1st October – Wimbledon have drawn 3 and lost 2 at Kingsmeadow, including heavy defeats to Crawley and Crewe.

Can Wes Foderingham… claim his sixth successive clean sheet in League Two?

Which, if successful would equal a club Football League record set by legendary ‘keeper Peter Downsborough at the start of the 1968/69 season.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head… In all competitions Swindon had faced Wimbledon FC on 10 occasions, winning 3, drawing 2 and suffering 5 defeats.

Our first meeting against their successors, AFC Wimbledon, was a week ago in the JPT.

The match finished in a 1-1 draw after normal time with Town taking it 3-1 on penalties, after Phil Smith saved 3 of the 4 penalties he faced.

What The Stats Say… AFC Wimbledon’s defensive weak point is their save rate at home. Goalkeeper Seb Brown has saved only 59% of all shots faced, the second worst of any host ‘keeper in League Two.

In attack, while AFC Wimbledon have one of the lowest rates of shots per game by a host, their overall acuracy is very impressive, scoring 18.7% of all shots, which is the 3rd best in League Two by a home side.

At home, the Dons have scored 17 goals, with 10 flying into their opponent’s net during the first half. Wimbledon’s most dangerous period is between 31-45 minutes when 5 of their goals have been scored.

With 20 home goals conceded, Wimbledon have the highest total goals against at home in League Two. 13 have been conceded after half time, with a defensive vulnerability in the final 15 minutes with 7 goals conceded.

Swindon have only conceded 1 goal in the first half away this season and otherwise impressive with only 8 conceded, 2 behind Morecambe with 6 against on their travels.

Interestingly….Town have yet to score, or concede in time added-on, away this season….

Kickoff.co.uk Prediction… 

% Chance of Full Time Result: Swindon win: 52% | AFC Wimbledon win: 21% | Draw: 27%

% Chance of Scoreline: AFC Wimbledon 1 Swindon 1: 13% | AFC Wimbledon 0 Swindon 1: 13% | AFC Wimbledon 0 Swindon 2: 11% | AFC Wimbledon 1 Swindon 0: 8%

My prediction… With Swindon unbeaten in a while and AFC Wimbledon vulnerable in defence at home I can only see Town out-scoring their opponents to make it 4 away victories in a row on our travels. So I’m predicting a 1-0 victory for Swindon.

3 comments

Leave a reply to Alex Cancel reply