Saturday we welcome back ‘Luggy’ as Paul Sturrock returns to the Swindon dugout with Southend United.

Form… After putting to bed our miserable run of four successive defeats with victory over Rotherham last Saturday, Town go into this home game with 2 home wins from 3 played.

Southend sit just outside the play-offs, albeit with another 40 games remaining… Their 10 points from 18 come courtesy of wins over Hereford, Accrington and Port Vale. Southend’s away form has been stronger than at Roots Hall with 6 of their 10 points secured, scoring 5 goals in those two wins. The Shrimpers are unbeaten in two league games.

Swindon Team Speculation… With injuries and suspensions exposing Di Canio’s lack of strength in depth, Town are looking short of options. Following an injury to Lukas Magera, both Aden Flint and Chibocchi are struggling to shake off knocks before Saturday and Alberto Comazzi is suspended.

Devera will certainly return in place of Comazzi, however if Flint can’t make the XI expect to see Oliver Risser return to partner in the centre of defence. The midfield is likely to remain unchanged with De Vita continuing on the left and Gabilondo will probably return to the bench. Medhi Kerrouche is set to continue upfront with last weekend’s two goal hero Alan Connell.

Southend Team Speculation… Bilel Mohsni and Blair Sturrock look set to continue their partnership upfront with the returning Barry Corr in contention to return to the bench. Neil Harris remains out with a groin injury and Liam Dickinson is suspended.

Previous Meetings… In ‘major’ competitions the sides have met 108 times with Town winning 46, drawing 25 and suffering 37 defeats. Our record at the County Ground against Southend is formidable. Of the 54 games we’ve won 33, drawn 12 and defeated on 9 occasions, out shooting our opponents 2:1. However two of those 9 defeats at home have come in the past four games in Swindon.

Swindon are undefeated against Southend in our previous 3 encounters. Previously Town had been on an awful run of six successive defeats from January 2005 to October 2008, losing 0-2, 1-2, 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 1-2 and 1-2 in League and cup.

From The Archive… 6th April 1985 | Canon League Division Four | Swindon 2-0 Southend Utd

All was not well between Lou Macari and his chosen assistant Harry Gregg. Differing football philosophies and an argument over footballing decisions led to the two not even talking to each other. When the board, bemused by this infighting, realised Macari wouldn’t take the decision to sack his right hand man, they hastily sacked both men on Good Friday, days before Southend were set to visit the County Ground.

John Trollope took temporary charge and guided a troubled Swindon to a comfortable 2-0 victory, courtesy of a Garry Nelson poach and a second half strike from Colin Gordon, in front of 2,693 angry Town fans.

The match was interrupted by constant pitch invasions, chants to oust the Board and protests, as fans were shocked by yet another rash and incomprehensible decision by a board it seemed determined to bring the club down. Fortunately the pressure from the supporters and Macari finally paid off. The following Wednesday the board saw sense, decided to listen to Macari and the facts, reversed their decision and reinstated Lou. The rest they say is history…

What the Stats Tell Us… Away from home Southend don’t create a lot of chances. In their three games they average 6.6 shots per game with 4 shots on target per game. However despite the lack of chances, their 25% strike rate from 5 goals shows they have a deadly and clinical finish. Four of those away goals have been scored in the opening 30 minutes, highlighting Di Canio had better ensure his defence are organised from the off, otherwise Swindon will find themselves a goal behind for the fourth time in six games.

At home, Swindon haven’t dominated possession in the way Di Canio wanted or needed with his high pressing 4-4-2. Only versus Rotherham did Town secure any meaningful possession with 53/47% of the match. In comparison to Southend’s 25% strike rate away from home, Swindon’s home strike rate of 15.9% reflects our poor finishing in front of goal from our 14.6 shots per game. Looking at the times when we score, it’s interesting to note no goals have been scored at home in the opening 15 minutes, or the 15 minutes after half time, showing perhaps that Town seem to need time to settle into their rhythm first before creating meaningful attacking opportunities.

Decent Bet… Southend United to open the scoring.

Prediction… Thankfully Swindon are their best at the County Ground and even considering the enforced changes to the starting XI I’m sure Town will have the attacking power to see off Southend. We will concede, but we’ll score two, so 2-1 it is then…