A Season in Stats: Part 2 – Slow out of the blocks

One thing I’ve noticed whilst watching the games is how slow out of the blocks Swindon have been this season. Even on the rare occasions we’ve had the early advantage we haven’t capitalised and scored enough goals in the early periods.

So it’s another time to delve into the statistics to look at when Swindon and our opposition goals have been scored throughout the season. Goals scored is split into those scored in minutes 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, 45+, 46-60, 61-75, 76-90 and 90+.

In the opening 15 minutes of both halves Swindon have only scored 10 goals, just 20% of the total, 4 all season in the opening 15 minutes! With just 4 goals in that crucial period no wonder we’ve failed to get the upper hand in games.

Both charts are similar in the general spread of goals we’ve scored. Our middle period of both halves have been the greatest success (with 9 and 11 scored) and I’m surprised by our lack of an impact in time added on at the end of both halves, only 3 goals all season.

As for our opposition throughout the season:

That 1st half opposition figure is staggering. 17 goals, the highest number of goals scored in any of the Swindon or Opposition periods and this was just within the first 15 minutes of the games. Remember Swindon just scored 4 goals in the opening 15 minutes…

Also the opposition clearly had the advantage in the final 15 minutes and into injury time of the second half. We couldn’t beat them early in the game or at the end. In-fact Swindon only beat the opposition in 1 of the 8 surveyed periods (31-45 minutes).

Do you remember back in 2009/2010? We were so strong when scoring first in a game, only to lose after scoring first in the final league game at Millwall. Our early goals were key to our promotion push, however in 2010/2011 did the early opposition goals punish us?

Scored First

& Won

& Drawn

& Lost

Swindon

14

8 (58%)

3 (21%)

3 (21%

Opposition

27

20 (74%)

6 (22%)

1 (4%)

In short…YES!

So the same advantage that you were more likely to win when scoring first applied this season, particularly for our opposition…a 74% chance of winning after going ahead!

The players just haven’t been able to get motivated after conceding the early goal, why? They’ve had no confidence to deal with this situation, a long standing issue even under Wilson in 2009/2010 we couldn’t win, particularly away after going behind. A mental issue the new manager needs to urgently address.

Just to emphasise how important the early goal to Swindon was…how many times did we win this season?…9 times, only the victory at Charlton resulted from the opposition scoring first. That’s how key our early goals were for us.

Not scoring enough and conceding too many in the opening periods is a key reason why we failed this season.

A Season in Stats Part 1 – Relegation

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