The table DOESN’T lie…

Guff from the Adver earlier earlier today with Gary Rose’s article on his interview with Swindon Town defender Andy Frampton.

Titled “The table DOES lie!”, the article widely quotes from Frampton, yet I can’t read anywhere Frampton making that exact statement in the title…

A misleading title born from Frampton commenting:

“We have to concentrate on what we are doing. There are nine games to go and a lot of points to play for and it is what the table says on May 8 that counts and not now so we will knuckle down and get on with it.”

Show me a football manager or player who hasn’t said this at some point in their career…

It’s an obvious statement, of course the table after the final league match of the season is the one that counts, however the real problem is Swindon probably won’t have to wait until 5pm on the 8th May to learn our fate.

So nine games are left to go, but this is only 27 points to play for. Wait a minute…if we win all remaining games that’s 61 points, so if results elsewhere go our way, we can still finish 6th 😉 Perhaps not…

On a more serious note, whilst I want to be positive, I really can’t see us staying up. **Shock / Gasp / Horror! **

We have no games remaining against the rest of the bottom six, so there’s no ‘six pointer’ opportunity to make a big difference. We have a rely on results elsewhere going in our favour, however as this past weekend has shown it can’t be guaranteed.

A fortnight ago I predicted we’d need 18 points to finish with the ‘magic’ 50 and have a good chance of staying up.

Now, as the table below shows, despite securing 2 draws, we still need just over 18 points as the bar has been raised by recent results. So now at least 53 is looking likely to be needed given our goal difference.

I’m not saying it can be done and we can’t avoid relegation, it’s just that the current table and our form doesn’t lie… You have to ask yourself are there really 4 teams worse than us in League One?

Some predictions again...for what they're worth...

P Points Req = Predicted points required to level with team predicted to finish 20th and potentially avoid relegation

P Req P/G = Points required per game to level with 20th placed team

One comment

  • Mathematically, staying up is still very much possible, but not very probable.
    Securing 9 points from the 1st 3 games in March was imperative to allow us some breathing room for the ga,es against Huddersfield and Brighton. If we’d done so, we would now be just above the relegation zone. These 7 missed points will be the difference come the end of the season. Certainly, the season didn’t hinge on just these 3 games, but for the run-in, they mean we now have to win the majority of the remaining games, increasing the pressure on the team.
    I hope we do it, but not very confident. I wonder who will be still in the squad at the start of next season, be it in League One or Two.
    So, if we don’t make it and if the dithering and penny pinching during the first half of this season is continued into the summer, we may face a long spell in League Two or possibly even beyond that….

    Like

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