Swindon Town: Running out of time to avoid relegation

Here’s one for you…so how many points do Swindon Town need to avoid relegation to League Two?

After updating my usual predicted League One home / away form table (see below), I now find Yeovil Town predicted to finish 20th with 50.15 points and Swindon, unsurprisingly predicted, to finish bottom with a meagre 41.6 points.

So with 11 games remaining for Town, 18.15 points are needed to at least draw level with Yeovil and for it to go down to goal difference. 19 points are really needed if the table predictions are right.

Fortunately, we narrowly beat Yeovil by a single goal as the form predictions estimate Town would finish on -23 and Yeovil -24 goal difference. A very close finish if we can claw back the points difference…

But where do we make up these 18.15 points? That’s 1.65 per game required (to draw level), when we’ve only secured 0.91 points per game so far this season?

We’ve also not even averaged 1.65 points per game at any time so far this season. The highest being 1.5 points per game following the victory over Huddersfield back in September (12 points after 8 games).

Even if you pick the ‘easier games’, as if any are easy in our current position, i.e. winning the four remaining home games, this still leaves at least 7 points to win on our travels to Huddersfield, Brighton, Exeter, Brentford, Sheffield Wednesday and Tranmere. We must win at least 1 of the away games…

I don’t want to be unnecessarily down, but we need to start winning now. We’ve all been saying this for weeks…we’re running out of time…now it’s getting desperate!

Whilst there are still points to play for (currently 33) anything is possible.

As for the reasons why we are in this position, it’s all down to goals. If you don’t score you can’t win. 6 goals in the 13 games since the win at Charlton shows why we’re relegation favourites.

So 19 points to avoid relegation, starting with 3 against Dagenham & Redbridge tomorrow.

Predicted Table
Team Home Away Total P Req P/G G/D
1 Brighton 57.50 37.88 95.38 -17.85 -1.37 50.99
2 Southampton 46.00 34.50 80.50 -7.85 -0.60 41.35
3 Bournemouth 51.11 28.41 79.52 -10.85 -0.99 30.52
4 Peterborough 49.83 28.75 78.58 -8.85 -0.74 20.28
5 Huddersfield 44.72 33.82 78.55 -9.85 -0.90 22.02
6 MK Dons 47.28 26.83 74.11 -7.85 -0.78 5.11
7 Leyton O 47.53 25.71 73.24 0.15 0.01 20.65
8 Charlton 37.88 28.75 66.63 2.15 0.17 1.61
9 Rochdale 36.80 28.41 65.21 5.15 0.37 6.13
10 Colchester 40.59 23.00 63.59 2.15 0.20 -4.89
11 Hartlepool 33.82 28.11 61.93 3.15 0.29 -15.41
12 Sheff Wed 35.27 25.56 60.82 7.15 0.55 4.34
13 Exeter 35.18 25.56 60.73 4.15 0.38 -9.92
14 Carlisle 34.50 25.88 60.38 5.15 0.43 10.38
15 Oldham 34.50 25.71 60.21 4.15 0.38 -6.76
16 Brentford 33.82 24.35 58.18 7.15 0.60 -9.47
17 Notts C 37.88 18.07 55.95 11.15 0.74 -4.74
18 Tranmere 29.76 23.00 52.76 11.15 0.93 -9.47
19 Dag & Red 28.75 21.56 50.31 15.15 1.08 -14.38
20 Yeovil 25.88 24.28 50.15 13.15 1.10 -23.96
21 Plymouth 31.94 23.00 44.94 18.15 1.65 -20.07
22 Walsall 25.56 19.17 44.72 15.15 1.52 -24.28
23 Bristol R 25.71 17.89 43.59 17.15 1.56 -40.29
24 Swindon 28.11 13.53 41.64 18.15 1.65 -22.77

P Req = Points required to draw level with predicted 20th place points total

P/G = Points per game required to draw level with predicted 20th place points total

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