League One Predictions: Swindon relegated with Walsall, Plymouth and Rovers?

Following the full League One fixture programme this afternoon, for what it’s worth, here’s an updated league form table sorted by predicted finish position. The predicted total is calculated by points per game secured home and away, and projecting this forward for the remainder of the season.

So Swindon have won 1.22 points per game at home with 5 games remaining and 0.63 away with 7 remaining, equating to 42.5 points, around half of what we secured on our march to Wembley last season. Not happy reading…

Brighton are still head and shoulders above the rest, followed by a closely contested play-off fight now joined by Leyton Orient after Charlton’s recent poor form.

At the bottom Plymouth are looking likely to make up some of their 10 point deduction and move off the bottom, but not enough to stave off relegation along with Walsall, Swindon and Bristol Rovers.

What these predictions show is slightly less than 50 points is likely to be enough to avoid the drop, but even for Town to secure 42 points is looking a tall order….

My thoughts on the Swindon v Walsall match coming up Monday.

Home Away
POS Team G P P/G Pred H G P P/G Pred A Predicted
1 Brighton 16 40 2.50 57.50 16 25 1.56 35.94 93.44
2 Bournemouth 18 40 2.22 51.11 16 21 1.31 30.19 81.30
3 Southampton 16 31 1.94 44.56 16 24 1.50 34.50 79.06
4 Huddersfield 17 32 1.88 43.29 17 25 1.47 33.82 77.12
5 Peterborough 18 39 2.17 49.83 15 17 1.13 26.07 75.90
6 MK Dons 17 34 2.00 46.00 18 21 1.17 26.83 72.83
7 Leyton O 15 31 2.07 47.53 16 16 1.00 23.00 70.53
8 Charlton 17 28 1.65 37.88 15 20 1.33 30.67 68.55
9 Rochdale 15 24 1.60 36.80 16 21 1.31 30.19 66.99
10 Colchester 17 30 1.76 40.59 17 18 1.06 24.35 64.94
11 Hartlepool 17 25 1.47 33.82 17 22 1.29 29.76 63.59
12 Oldham 17 27 1.59 36.53 17 19 1.12 25.71 62.24
13 Brentford 16 25 1.56 35.94 17 18 1.06 24.35 60.29
14 Exeter 16 23 1.44 33.06 18 20 1.11 25.56 58.62
15 Carlisle 17 24 1.41 32.47 16 18 1.13 25.88 58.35
16 Notts C 16 28 1.75 40.25 14 11 0.79 18.07 58.32
17 Sheff Wed 15 23 1.53 35.27 17 17 1.00 23.00 58.27
18 Tranmere 16 22 1.38 31.63 17 17 1.00 23.00 54.63
19 Yeovil 16 18 1.13 25.88 17 19 1.12 25.71 51.58
20 Dag & Red 15 17 1.13 26.07 16 15 0.94 21.56 47.63
21 Walsall 17 20 1.18 27.06 18 15 0.83 19.17 46.23
22 Plymouth 17 22 1.29 29.76 17 17 1.00 23.00 42.76
23 Swindon 18 22 1.22 28.11 16 10 0.63 14.38 42.49
24 Bristol R 17 19 1.12 25.71 17 11 0.65 14.88 40.59

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