Swindon can avoid relegation, but will we?

Speaking to the Swindon Advertiser, Danny Wilson believes 50 points will ensure Swindon Town will start the 2011/2012 season in League One.

I’m inclined to agree with Danny and would go so far as to suggest we could avoid the drop with a few less than the normal 50 point target given the way things stand.

Obviously I don’t want it to go down to the wire, with a nervous trip to Tranmere on the final day potentially on the cards, but with 14 games remaining and teams beginning to become equal in games played, it remains in our hands to throw it all away.

Looking at home and away form so far this season, if we and the rest of the division were to continue to perform at the same rate the end of season table would finish like this:

With the Plymouth 10 deduction taken into account, despite sitting 20th at present we’d be relegated in 22nd place with nearly 44 points, but this is just a win shy of Dagenham & Redbridge who survive their maiden season at this level with 46 points.

Clearly, the relegation fight is between us, Plymouth, Walsall, Bristol Rovers, Dag & Red. Yeovil and perhaps Tranmere…and don’t forget we’ve still to play 4 of these 6.

So to make sure we avoid the drop that’s 14 points needed according to my estimate, or 19 to hit the magic ’50’ points. Either way we’ve got to start winning, with a need for 4 or 5 wins plus a few draws, will be just enough

Even though I’ve picked out the 4 games against fellow relegation candidates, it’ll be wrong to suggest the specific games to target for 3 points.

We’ve shown this season with wins against Southampton, Huddersfield, Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton that we’ve actually performed better against teams who were riding higher in the league at the time of the match. Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on the way you look at it, we’ve been dealt a tough run-in with Southampton, Huddersfield, Brighton, MK Dons, Sheffield Wednesday and Oldham.

So despite my prediction attempts, it’s still a league you just can’t predict the outcome.

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