Tonight Swindon can mathematically secure a place in League One with a draw against Aldershot, or if Crawley fail to win at home to Northampton.

Town can win the League Two title if they better Shrewsbury’s result, who play Port Vale.

If Swindon do secure the title tonight, it would be an uncanny resemblance with our Division Four title in 1985/86 which was won days before thumping the Shots 4-2 at the Recreation Ground on 22nd April 1986.

Form Guide… 

First placed Swindon are 8 points clear at the top of the table and currently on a run of three defeats in thirty-one League Two matches. Town’s current form guide reads five wins and one draw in six outings.

Away from the County Ground, Town have won their previous two trips to Barnet and Morecambe, making it four victories and two defeats in six outings.

11th placed Aldershot can still make 70 points and a play-off place if all results go their way…

The Shots are without a win in four games, with two wins, two draws and two defeats in six matches.

As hosts, Aldershot are winless in two games, but they won their previous four. Aldershot have the fourth strongest defensive record, conceding an average of 0.76 goal per game at home.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…

In all competitions Swindon had faced Aldershot on 64 occasions, winning 38, drawing 14 and suffering 12 defeats.

In the Football League, Swindon have come out on top more than most, winning 31, drawing 10 and defeated 11 times.

After the clubs went head to head most seasons throughout the late 70′s and early 80′s, Town have only faced the Shots once – a 2-0 victory at the County Ground in November – in the Football League since a 4-2 victory in April 1986, as Town celebrated winning the Division Four Title.

What The Stats Say… 

The match sees Swindon, who are back up to the most efficient side in the division, face 20th ranked Aldershot, according to our latest rankings.

Here are how the teams perform in each of the five attacking and defensive measures, when assessed against the rest of the division…

Defence					Attack
	Shots(Hosts)	r	STFC    (Away)	r		Shots(Hosts)	r	STFC    (Away)	r
Shots Against Per Game	5.9	1	8.6	1	Shots For Per Game	10	23	10.2	8
% Shots Against on Target	39.8%	2	52.1%	20	% Shots For on Target	37.6%	24	47.1%	19
% Save Rate	67.4%	19	78.7%	6	% Strike Rate	10.5%	19	11.8%	13
Corners Against Per Game	4	3	4.9	3	Corners Won Per Game	6	11	5.6	8
Possession Conceded	48.8%	15	48%	2	Possession Won	51.2%	15	52%	2
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst | TheWashbag.com

Neither side has truly capitalised on restricting their opponents shots on goal and corners. While Aldershot ensure their opposition have the second fewest percentage of shots on target, their save rate of 67.4% is ranked 19th best in the division. Meanwhile, Swindon cope well with a fifth highest percentage of shots on target with an ever increasing save rate of 78.7%. Will the defences stand up to the challenge tonight with a dull affair with limited shots?

Aldershot have the third worst attacking ranking as hosts, including an average of 10 shots per game and of those only 1 in 10 has been scored. Swindon’s attack is nothing to shout about on our travels and shows high amounts of possession doesn’t equal more shots and goals.

SCORED	1-15	16-30	31-45	45+	46-60	61-75	76-90	90+
Shots (at home)	1	5	4	0	3	5	3	1
STFC (away)	2	6	5	0	4	3	3	1

Goals are more frequent in the middle stages of each half for Aldershot, while Swindon are strongest in front of goal in the first half

CONCEDED	1-15	16-30	31-45	45+	46-60	61-75	76-90	90+
Shots(at home)	4	2	3	1	3	3	0	0
STFC (away)	1	5	2	0	4	5	2	0

Aldershot have yet to concede at home in the final 15 minutes plus stoppages in League Two.

My prediction… 

Swindon have regained some away form at the right time following victories in our two previous outings and face Aldershot who have stumbled over the Easter games.

The Shots’ record as hosts is statistically impressive by restricting their opponent’s chances and yet to concede in the final stages, so Swindon need to secure the early advantage if we’re going to get anything out of the game.

I can only see this ending in a 1-1 draw, which would be enough to secure promotion and perhaps the title depending on the Shrewsbury result.

Come on You Reds!