Match Preview: Swindon vs Plymouth Argyle
A victory for Swindon over Plymouth coupled with a defeat for either Crawley or Torquay will see Town promoted.
Also, a 23rd clean sheet of the league campaign against Argyle would set a new club Football League record.
Also… an 18th clean sheet at home will beat the previous Football League Division Four record of 17 shut outs by a host held by Reading 1978/79, Southend 81/82, Gills 95/96.
Form Guide…
First placed Swindon are 7 points clear at the top of the table and currently on a run of three defeats in thirty League Two matches. Town’s current form guide reads four wins, one draw and one defeat in six outings.
At the County Ground, Town are unbeaten since August, making it 19 games without tasting defeat and 51 points from a possible 57. In the previous fifteen home games Wes Foderingham has only been beaten once.
20th placed Plymouth Argyle are now 8 points clear of the relegation zone following new year turnaround of form, including their current unbeaten run of six games, including three victories and three draws.
Away from Home Park, Argyle are without a win in three games, having won twice, drawn three and suffered one defeat in six. Plymouth drew their previous two trips at fellow strugglers Northampton and Hereford.
Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…
In all competitions, Town have faced Plymouth on 101 occasions, winning 35, drawing 21 and defeated 45 times; scoring 144 and conceding 154.
At the County Ground, Swindon have 27 victories, 9 draws and 12 defeats from 48 matches. Interestingly, Swindon never lost to Plymouth in Wiltshire in 15 non-league and wartime matches.
Swindon have lost the two previous meetings at the County Ground 2-3 in December 2003 and September 2010.
What The Stats Say…
The match sees Swindon, who are back up to the most efficient side in the division, face 24th ranked Plymouth, according to our latest rankings.
Here are how the teams perform in each of the five attacking and defensive measures, when assessed against the rest of the division…
|
Defence |
Attack |
||||||||
|
STFC(Hosts) |
r |
Argyle (Away) |
r |
|
STFC(Hosts) |
r |
Argyle (Away) |
r |
|
| Shots Against Per Game |
6.3 |
2 |
10.7 |
8 |
Shots For Per Game |
12.2 |
9 |
7.8 |
23 |
| % Shots Against on Target |
40.2% |
2 |
45.1% |
2 |
% Shots For on Target |
50.4% |
13 |
47.2% |
18 |
| % Save Rate |
84.5% |
2 |
65.4% |
24 |
% Strike Rate |
17.3% |
3 |
13.5% |
9 |
| Corners Against Per Game |
2.9 |
1 |
7.1 |
22 |
Corners Won Per Game |
6.4 |
8 |
3.5 |
24 |
| Possession Conceded |
46.6% |
2 |
54.8% |
23 |
Possession Won |
53.4% |
2 |
45.2% |
23 |
| R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | 1 equals the best and 24 is the worst | TheWashbag.com | |||||||||
Plymouth’s defensive line performs admirably considering they’ve conceded 54.8% possession on their travels. Despite giving away so much of the ball, Argyle have ensured their opponents have the eighth fewest average shots per game and the second fewest percentage of shots on target. However, the goalkeeping position is the undoubted weakness with the worst save rate of any visiting team at 65.4% of all shots on target are saved.
In attack, without significant possession, Argyle struggle to create enough shots and corners to be any real threat at their opponent’s goal. Although with the few shots that do strike the target, a better than average number to hit the back of the net, hence their away goalscoring record is joint 16th in the division.
| SCORED |
1-15 |
16-30 |
31-45 |
45+ |
46-60 |
61-75 |
76-90 |
90+ |
| STFC(at home) |
3 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
| Argyle (away) |
2 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Town have been increasingly stronger in the later stages of the first half, but its been Swindon’s dominance in the second 45 that has seen us secure so many home victories. Plymouth are atr their most dangerous straight after half time and in the final 15 minutes plus stoppages.
| CONCEDED |
1-15 |
16-30 |
31-45 |
45+ |
46-60 |
61-75 |
76-90 |
90+ |
| STFC (at home) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
| Argyle (away) |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
6 |
4 |
Swindon have yet to concede more than 2 goals in any of the periods as hosts. Looking at this table you can see where Argyle’s problems lie… in the second half with an increasing number of goals conceded towards the later stages, perhaps indicating a lack of fitness amongst the squad…
My prediction…
With Plymouth lacking the fight in the later stages of matches and a woeful save rate, Town should have enough to finish off any Argyle threat late in the second half if needed. Argyle have conceded an average of 1.7 goals on their travels which will increase slightly following a 2-0 Swindon victory this Saturday…
Come on You Reds!
The Washbag 
Another interesting article, though I have one minor quibble concerning the save %.
As tactics guru Jonathan Wilson points out, not all shots in a football match are equal – some are from more advantageous positions than others etc. Isn’t the save % as likely to show that Plymouth are conceding chances that are easier to convert, as it is to show that they have goal keeping frailties? The fact that they have relatively few shots against per game doesn’t mean that those shots that do happen aren’t from very good attacking positions.
Our two goals against Barnet spring to mind here. The nature of both chances meant that realistically it would be difficult for the keeper to have done anything about them. They, according to the BBC, were the only 2 shots on target. A save rate of 0% looks rather harsh on the keeper when both chances came about from bad defending leaving him rather exposed.
Anyway thought provoking stuff and a good read. Minor quibbles aside, keep up the good work!
LikeLike
Having run some more stats, I’ve assessed how strong the strike rate of each opponent has been against each team on a home and away basis. In terms of Plymouth, their opponents have secured a strike rate of 15.6% as hosts, which is the most clinical attack any team has faced on their travels. So I wouldn’t necceassrily agree that Plymouth conceded ‘easier chances to convert’ as it could equally be the the strength of the attacks they’ve face and / or their own defensive frailties.
LikeLike