Form Guide… 

First placed Swindon are 5 points clear at the top of the table and currently on a run of three defeats in twenty-eight League Two matches. Town’s current form guide reads four wins, one draw and one defeat in six outings.

Away from the County Ground, Town won 2-0 at Barnet after suffering two successive defeats, making it four victories and two defeats in six trips.

Swindon’s clean sheet at Barnet in midweek was our first in nine League Two matches and only our fifth in nineteen away trips.

12th placed Morecambe are 9 points behind 7th place and realistically will have to settle for missing out on promotion this term. The Shrimpers won their previous game 2-1 at Oxford United – to endear them to any Swindon fan – and have three wins, one draw and two defeats in six League Two matches.

At the Globe Arena, Morecambe have lost their previous two games – 0-1 defeats against both Hereford and Shrewsbury – with three wins and three defeats in six games.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…

Town have faced Morecambe twice and won both encounters, scoring four goals without reply.

In the first meeting in an FA Cup 2nd Round tie in December 2006 – Swindon progressed thanks to a late Christian Roberts penalty when the then non-league side looked odds on to take the Town to a replay.

Earlier this season, Town thumped the Shrimpers 3-0 at the County Ground courtesy of goals from Jake Jervis, Raffa De Vita and Ronan Murray.

What The Stats Say… 

The match sees Swindon, who have dropped to the 3rd most efficient side in the division, face 12th ranked Morecambe, according to our latest rankings.

Here are how the teams perform in each of the five attacking and defensive measures, when assessed against the rest of the division…

Defence					Attack
	M’cambe(Hosts)	r	STFC    (Away)	r		M’cambe(Hosts)	r	STFC     (Away)	r
Shots Against Per Game	13.7	24	8.5	2	Shots For Per Game	12.2	6	10.4	7
% Shots Against on Target	51.3%	15	52.5%	19	% Shots For on Target	50%	13	46.7%	20
% Save Rate	81.4%	5	77.7%	7	% Strike Rate	11.9%	13	11.7%	16
Corners Against Per Game	5	12	5	3	Corners Won Per Game	5.1	22	5.7	5
Possession Conceded	51.1%	20	47.6%	1	Possession Won	48.9%	20	52.4%	1
R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | TheWashbag.com

As hosts Morecambe have struggled to control possession and ultimately restrict their opponents who find enough space and time to secure an average of 13.7 shots per game – the worst record in the division – and 51.3% of those shots on target. We did highlight earlier this season how important Barry Roche was as the last line of defence and that has proved to be the case with an exceelent save rate of 81.4%, however that is well down from a high in the 90%+ earlier this season.

Town’s continual problem in attack away from home is test the opposition ‘keeper enough. As shown by Tuesday night’s 29% shots on target at Barnet, Swindon’s performance of 46.7% over the season away from the County Ground has blighted making good use of our high average shots per game.

SCORED	1-15	16-30	31-45	45+	46-60	61-75	76-90	90+
M’cambe (at home)	4	4	3	0	6	8	4	0
STFC (away)	2	6	5	0	3	3	3	1

Morecambe have yet to secure the advantage to sneak a late goal at the end of either half, however, if form persists, the opening 30 minutes of the second half will be a dangerous time for Swindon. As Tuesday showed, Town are strongest in the first half with 57% of our goals scored in the first 45.

CONCEDED	1-15	16-30	31-45	45+	46-60	61-75	76-90	90+
M’Cambe (at home)	2	4	4	0	3	6	4	3
STFC (away)	1	5	2	0	4	5	2	0

Morecambe are weakest as the match progresses with 3 conceded as hosts in time added on at the end of the 90.

Kickoff.co.uk Prediction…

Result: Swindon Win 65% | Morecambe Win 11% | Draw 24%

Full time result: Swindon 1-0 20% | Swindon 2-0 16%| Swindon 0-0 13% | Swindon 3-0 9% | Swindon 0-1 7%

My prediction… 

Morecambe have been ropey recently at the Globe Arena and following a resounding 2-0 victory for Swindon at Barnet, a similar scoreline on the Lancashire coast seems a decent bet.

Come on You Reds!