Back a few weeks ago I was asked if I collected statistics on the number of points won by each player in League Two. Not only are these available, statistics are held covering when a player takes to the field or not selected. As a result a comparison can be made on points won when in and out of the side, indicating how important it is for Paolo Di Canio to select each player in the side.

Assessing how many points the team has won with and without selecting each player, including substitution appearances, of the 30 players who’ve worn the red shirt in League Two, 18 players have a ‘positive’ impact on points won in games they were eligible for.

These range from Ronan Murray and Michael Timlin – an obvious outcome given both have won their only games in which they’ve featured in, Wes Foderingham with a 2.43 point / 81% importance to the team, to Ahmed Abdulla whose inclusion in the line-up has resulted in a marginal 0.04 points per game – equivalent to a 1.4% chance of winning with the Saudi Arabian in the side.

Only two players – Mattia Lanzano and Lukas Magera – have a ‘neutral’ impact so far on points gained.

Turning to the 10 players with a ‘negative’ impact these include some surprises. Despite banging in the goals, Medhi Kerrouche has a minus 0.2 point or a 6.4% chance of defeat when he features, also Raffa De Vita has a minus 1.3 point or 44.4% impact when he plays compared to when he doesn’t feature. Leon Clarke lost both matches he played in the league and the remaining match he was eligible we won again Rotherham, so his effect is obviously 100% negative impact on the team’s chances of a win.

Overall in terms of the team as a whole, the 19 League matches to date have yielded a team points total of 33 – equivalent to 1.74 points per game, or a 57.9% chance of a win. If this current rate was continued until may Swindon would accrue 80 points.

The contribution of only eight players – Ronan Murray, Michael Timlin, Wes Foderingham, Jake Jervis, Liam Ridehalgh, Simon Ferry, Paul Caddis and Matt Ritchie – are of such importance to the team that their selection ensures the side meets or exceeds the 1.74 point team average. The standout contribution of this group outweighs the poorer performances of their colleagues and are a key reason for healthy our League Two position.

When you look at this top group one noticeable thing immediately stands out, four of the eight are loan players. In terms of the other four, with the exception of Timlin whose stat is based on a single appearance, the others are arguably the best players we’ve got.

Wes Foderingham, Jake Jervis and Liam Ridehalgh are clearly of such importance to the team since their arrival, as much is obvious even without these statistics. They’ve been responsible for the side improving from being on course for a point total of around 60 points on their arrival, to now being in with a chance of finishing with a tally of 80 if it all continued at the current rate.

What is crucial is they’re loans and due to finish at the start of January. The back up players in each position now covered by Foderingham, Ridehalgh and Jervis have not made anywhere near the impact so I doubt Di Canio can rely on what is already at his disposal.

Their impact has been obvious, so crucial to our recent success that the club needs to secure their services until May or find equally effective replacements to maintain the promotion push.

The central defence has only come into its own in recent weeks with a settled pairing, which shows by the lower impact of Flint and McCormack, however the figures back up these two are the most effective pairing.

Discounting those who’ve only played once and those away on loan, based on these figures, the top XI players with the greatest impact on the team when they are selected are:

• GK – Foderingham (2.43 points | 81%)
• DR – Caddis (1.74 points | 58%)
• DC – Cibocchi (0.71 points | 21%)
• DC – Flint (0.46 points | 15%)
• DL – Ridehalgh (2 points | 67%)
• MR – Ritchie (1.74 points | 58%)
• MC – Ferry (1.83 points | 61%)
• MC – J Smith ( 1.25 points | 42%)
• ML – Gabilondo (-0.69 points | -23%)
• SC – Jervis (2 points | 67%)
• SC – Connell (1 point | 31%)

Strangely the left side of midfield is the only position where no player has a positive impact when they feature in the side. The team wins more points per game with all three players – Gabilondo, De Vita and Esajas – outside of the team. This has been distorted by Town winning in the only League Two game (against Port Vale) when De Vita hasn’t featured which brings his statistical contribution down by a long way.