Match Preview: Swindon v Crawley Town
Tuesday evening Town travel to 4th placed Crawley Town for a match that could be just as interesting in the dugouts as on the pitch.
Form… Siting 13th, Swindon are moving in the right direction following their first back-to-back wins since November 2010. Away from the County Ground, Town have been awful in the League with three defeats and a solitary goal at Shrewsbury. So to secure a first away win in League Two at Crawley Town is going to be tough.
Despite being thumped 6-0 at Morecambe, Crawley remain unbeaten and impressive at The Broadwood Stadium this season. Wins against Macclesfield, Southend and Bristol Rovers have come courtesy of 9 goals and only 1 conceded.
Swindon Team Speculation… After serving a one match ban Alberto Comazzi will return to partner Joe Devera in central defence. Oliver Risser is awaiting the results of a scan on his injured ankle but unlikely to feature. Aden Flint is likely to be rested to recover from his hip injury. Magera is still some weeks away from returning from his hamstring strain. As for the rest of the team Di Canio is expected to keep faith with the side that defeated Southend United 2-0 on Saturday.
Crawley Team Speculation… Crawley have announced the loan signing of Jon Paul Pittman from Oxford United. The former Crawley favourite joins on a 93 day loan and straight into the squad for tonight. John Dempster and Kyle McFadzean are rated 50/50. Midfielder Scott Neilsen may feature after playing 30 minutes after coming off the bench at the weekend. Defender Dean Howell is ruled out with a calf injury, while club captain Pablo Mills (ankle) and Jamie Day are also set to miss the match.
Previous Meetings… The sides have only previously met twice. Who can forget the FA Cup 2nd Round tie last season. After drawing 1-1 at Broadfield in front of the ESPN TV camera on a frosty November night, the replay was played out in even more freezing temperatures, but the game boiled before us and in the dugout as Crawley manager Steve Evans put on a virtuoso pantomime performance. As for the match, after Ben Smith’s opener for Crawley, Town took the half time lead with a JP McGovern header followed by Charlie Austin’s second of the tie. Then one of Phil Smith’s blunders handed Crawley the equaliser and sent the tie into extra time. Not what anyone wanted in the sub-zero chill. It remained 2-2 until two minutes from penalties when Ben Smith stabbed home his second to send Crawley on their way to an eventual tie at Old Trafford.
Steve Evans Says…
What the Stats Tell Us… A straightforward one; Crawley Town are unbeaten at home and Swindon are awful away this season.
In all three home games Crawley have dominated possession with an average of 59/41% of play in their favour. With this possession the Red Devils also aren’t afraid to shoot, creating enough space for an average of 17 shots per game, with nearly 1 in 5 hitting the back of the net. Crawley’s dominance has paid off in the second half of their home games, scoring 7 of their 9 goals after the break.
As for Swindon, while we’ve lost all three away games we’ve kept possession away from home (51/49%) and out shot our opponents 10.3 to 9 per game. One area where Swindon have so far failed to press enough is to win enough corners, beaten 6.3 to 4.3 per game at Cheltenham, Dagenham and Shrewsbury.
Decent Bets… Crawley to dominate possession and win more corners than Swindon, but Swindon to score first.
Prediction… With Swindon seemingly turning the corner under Di Canio with successive League victories and Crawley recovering from a real hammering at Morecambe, I fully expect Town to return from Sussex with at least a point. With Swindon forwards now finding the net and the ever dangerous Crawley strikeforce looking to add to their tally, I’m predicting a 2-2 draw.
