Match Preview: Swindon vs Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers-Ground

Form Guide… 

First placed Swindon are currently on a run of three defeats in twenty-six League Two matches. Town’s current form guide reads four wins and two defeats in six outings.

At the County Ground, Town are unbeaten since August, making it 17 games without tasting defeat and 47 points from a possible 51. Swindon have won their last eleven games as hosts with only one goal conceded by Wes Foderingham in thirteen games.

Pre-season favourites for promotion Bristol Rovers now find themselves languishing in 14th place, 27 points behind leaders Swindon.

Rovers’ current form guide reads two wins, two draws and two defeats in six League Two outings; however they were defeated 0-1 at Aldershot in midweek.

Away from the Memorial Stadium, Rovers are without a victory in four games, with one victory, two draws and three defeats.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head…

Town have faced Bristol Rovers 153 times, with a record of 65 wins, 23 draws and 65 defeats, scoring 223 and conceding 239.

At the County Ground, Swindon have 44 wins, 13 draws and 21 defeats, scoring 138 and conceding 96. Rovers’ most recent victory at the County Ground came on 6th March 2010 with a comprehensive 0-4 defeat .

Earlier this season, Town drew 1-1 at Rovers thanks to a Paul Caddis strike being cancelled out by a late Danny Woodards goal.

Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk History book…

One of the Town’s oldest adversaries, the first match against Bristol Eastville Rovers took place in the Western League – a secondary league competition for Swindon – back in 1897. A goal from Georgie Richardson was enough to give the Town both points – later in the season, a 3-0 victory was played out at the County Ground in front of just 350 people. Two years on, Rovers’ election to the Southern League put the clubs in the same division for the first time, a sequence that wasn’t broken until Rovers won promotion to Division Two over fifty years later, in 1953.

What The Stats Say… 

The match sees Swindon, who remain the most efficient side in the division, face 15th ranked Bristol Rovers, according to our latest rankings.

Here are how the teams perform in each of the five attacking and defensive measures, when assessed against the rest of the division…

Defence

Attack

 

STFC(Hosts)

r

  Rovers    (Away)

r

 

STFC(Hosts)

r

Rovers   (Away)

r

Shots Against Per Game

6.3

2

11.6

22

Shots For Per Game

11.9

11

9.8

9

% Shots Against on Target

43.8%

3

48%

5

% Shots For on Target

49.6%

16

54.6%

4

% Save Rate

83%

3

68.9%

20

% Strike Rate

18.6%

2

12.3%

14

Corners Against Per Game

2.8

1

6.8

19

Corners Won Per Game

6.3

8

4.2

20

Possession Conceded

46.7%

2

52.6%

21

Possession Won

53.3%

2

47.4%

21

R = rank: The ranking shown for each measure indicates the efficiency of the sides against the rest of the division as either hosts or the away side | TheWashbag.com

The rankings indicate Rovers will struggle to control Town’s attack which looks set to overrun their defence, but for all of Swindon’s possession, corners and shots, will we turn that advantage into goals?

With Town coming up against one of the weakest goalkeepers in the division – in terms of a % of shots saved – our clinical strike rate as hosts of nearly 1 goal from 5 attempts looks to continue.

SCORED

1-15

16-30

31-45

45+

46-60

61-75

76-90

90+

STFC (at home)

3

 5

7

2

8

8

8

1

Rovers (away)

3

 3

1

1

3

6

5

1

Town are stronger as the game progresses with an increasing potency in front of goal in the lead up to half time. Whereas Rovers as stronger in the final 30 minutes.

CONCEDED

1-15

16-30

31-45

45+

46-60

61-75

76-90

90+

STFC (at home)

1

1

2

0

0

2

2

0

Rovers (away)

5

5

3

1

3

9

6

1

With Town yet to concede more than two goals as hosts in any one period, Rovers capitulate in the final 30 minutes conceding 48% of their total goals during that late period of games.

Kickoff.co.uk Prediction…

Result: Swindon Win 74% | Rovers Win 6% | Draw 20%

Full time result: Swindon 1-0 19% | Swindon 2-0 18%| Swindon 3-0 12% | Swindon 0-0 10% | Swindon 2-1 8%

My prediction… 

Swindon to bounce back from the Wembley defeat and secure a win, and avenge that 4-0 defeat the last time we were chasing promotion… 2-0 to the Town.

Other Predictions…

  • Southend v Cheltenham – Score draw
  • Barnet v Torquay – Score Draw
  • Accrington v Wimbledon – Home win
  • Burton v Crawley – Away win
  • Crewe v Northampton – Score draw
  • Gills v Macclesfield – Home win
  • Oxford v Morecambe – Home win
  • Plymouth v Bradford – Home win
  • Port Vale v Daggers – Home win
  • Rotherham v Hereford – Home win
  • Shrewsbury v Aldershot – Home win

Come on You Reds!

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