Form… 6th placed Swindon have been unbeaten in their past 9 League Two games and 4 cup games.
Town have won 3 and drawn 3 of their previous 6 League games. At the County Ground, Swindon are unbeaten in their last 7 League Two matches, including a 2-0 victory against Aldershot last time out.
Morecambe have started to find themselves slide out of the promotion places. The Shrimpers occupied top spot following four consecutive games back in September, but 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their past six games, including a winless run in their past four game, sees then drop down to 8th.
Morecambe’s early rise to the summit was largely down to their impressive ability to stop their opponent’s scoring. Now that they’ve conceded in 5 of their past 6 League Two games is a main reason for their downturn in form.
Away from the Globe Arena, Morecambe haven’t won in 2 games, since an impressive 4-0 victory at Port Vale in October. Importantly Morecambe have been much the strong away this season with only 1 defeat on their travels.
Swindon-Town-FC.co.uk Head-to-Head… An easy one….as we’ve only played each other once.
We met in an FA Cup 2nd Round tie on 2nd December 2006. League Two Swindon made heavy weather of an impressive Conference Premier Morecambe at the County Ground.
It took an 89th minute penalty converted by Chrsitian Roberts to fire us to a 3rd Round tie at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace.
What The Stats Say… Morecambe’s league position of 8th echoes their overall position in our latest League Two Rankings.
Ranked 9th in their combined home and away – ranked 10 in defence and 8th in attack – Morecambe’s frailties lie in two key areas; allowing too many shots against them (around 12 per game) and conceding too much possession to their opponents (50.5%).
As we’ve reported so many times in our Rankings, the form of Barry Roche has been the saving grace behind Morecambe season so far. The former Nottingham Forest ‘keeper has saved 81.4% of all shots faced, which is currently ranked 2nd in League Two; importantly well behind his early form which stood at a massive 91% after 9 games.
Morecambe are ranked 3rd in their away efficiency, compared to 17th at home. This reflects their actual results as The Shrimpers are strongest away from the Globe Arena. Key reasons for their success on their travels have been restrcting opponents to a second fewest percentage of shots on target (42%), a second best save rate of 84%, dominating possession and being consistently above average in all five attacking measures.
The Shrimpers have scored 17 goals away from home, with 10 flying into their opponent’s net during the second half. Their most dangerous periods are immediately after the break where 4 goals have been scored between 46-60 minutes and 5 scored in the final 15 including time added on.
With 8 conceded away, Morecambe have the meanest away defence, with only 1 goal conceded in the first 30 minutes of the League match this season.
Swindon have scored 20 goals at the County Ground and are most dangerous in the second half with 11 scored, including 5 in the final 15 minutes plus time added on.
Interestingly….Town have still yet to concede in time added on home or away this season…
% Chance of Full Time Result: Swindon win: 50% | Morecambe win: 23% | Draw: 27%
% Chance of Scoreline: Swindon 1 Morecambe 0: 13% | Swindon 1 Morecambe 1: 13% | Bristol Swindon 2 Morecambe 1: 10% | Swindon 2 Morecambe 0: 10% | Swindon 0 Morecambe 1: 9%
My prediction… With Morecambe one of the division’s best teams on their travels facing on of the strongest hosts surely this will end up in a draw…NO… Paolo will have his team fired up after the late equaliser at Rovers so we’ll win 2-1.